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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-01-22T12:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-22T12:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18941/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2, NE in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with a filament eruption near N40E20, visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-01-22T06:35Z. There is a fainter envelope surrounding the clear leading edge in both coronagraphs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-27T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2022-01-22T15:56Z

Model Inputs:
2022-01-22T12:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-17.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=255.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2022-01-23T00:46Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
No or little impact to Earth.

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_004600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Note: The arrival is expected to be very weak, not even strong enough to classify as a glancing blow.  Because the CME is so slow the ambient solar wind ahead of it has cleared out the region in front of the CME.

Lead Time: 122.07 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-01-22T15:56Z

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